The week
the mountain spoke.

We count the share of historical appearances with at least one rushing or receiving touchdown. A three-TD game counts exactly once, just like a one-TD game. The minimum scoreless run is max(2, ceiling(1 / historical scoring-game frequency)). A 40% scoring frequency requires three scoreless appearances; 25% requires four.

The frequency uses completed prior seasons, weights the last three seasons 60/30/10, and shrinks toward the prior positional scoring-game frequency with eight pseudo-games. This eligibility rule is separate from the trained probability model and the editorial tier criteria. Diggs’s adjusted frequency is about 24%, requiring five scoreless appearances; he has two. This new rule has not been backtested.

Every player needs his personal historical-frequency drought minimum (at least two scoreless appearances), 12 prior appearances, completed-season history, a shrunk historical scoring rate of at least 0.25 TD/game and a Model B scoring estimate of at least 20%. Questionable players appear in a separate Honorable mentions list with no main-list rank. Ruled-out players, first returns after missing two or more consecutive team games, and players whose starting quarterback is flagged out with unreviewed replacement scoring context are excluded. A questionable starting quarterback keeps a visible caveat. Byes do not count.

Assign the highest qualifying tier: Eruption imminent requires history of at least 0.35 TD/game, a drought of at least four appearances and at least 2.0 drought xTD. The mountain stirs requires history of at least 0.30, a drought of at least three and at least 1.0 drought xTD. A second path into The mountain stirs recognizes productive pass-catchers: WR or TE, history of at least 0.35 TD/game, three or more scoreless appearances, at least eight recent weighted targets per game, at least 75% recent weighted offensive snaps, and at least 75 receiving yards per game over the last three appearances. All three games must have receiving data. This path recognizes sustained production even without goal-line or end-zone opportunities. Pressure building requires at least 0.5 drought xTD. Other eligible players are dormant threats. Drought xTD measures opportunity quality; it is not a promise of future touchdowns.

These thresholds are editorial choices, not fitted or validated prediction bands. Historical comparisons favored probability ranking over the original Due Index; that does not validate this new tier order.

Model B combines prior carries and targets, goal-line and end-zone opportunities, snap share, historical scoring and finishing, and lagged team/opponent trends. It was trained on 2016–2025 player appearances. The opportunity model uses 2013–2025 play-by-play. This week uses statistics through Week 5 only.

The default order groups players by the four editorial due tiers, then orders players within each tier by Model B scoring probability. These new tiers describe the drought story and have not been tested as a predictive ranking. Expand “Inside the mountain” on a player for the underlying numbers.

Each carry or target gets a scoring probability based on comparable historical opportunities. Adding those probabilities gives expected touchdowns. Drought xTD sums opportunities during the current scoreless run. It is an estimate of missed opportunity, not touchdowns the player must eventually “repay.”

These are uncalibrated research-model estimates, not sportsbook prices or guarantees. Current injury effects, quarterback changes and weather are not numerically incorporated. Historical testing used actual offensive participants; the current candidate list uses an active-roster snapshot and a separate injury review. Those were the pregame limitations; final results are recorded separately in this archive.

We count consecutive regular-season appearances across seasons. His eight-game run includes three games from 2025 and five from 2026. Playoff touchdowns are outside this regular-season measure. Rushing and receiving touchdowns both reset the drought.