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3 required", "excluded_role": false, "game_label": "SUN, OCT 25", "day_label": "SUN", "matchup_label": "ATL vs SF" }, { "player_id": "00-0038559", "player": "Michael Wilson", "team": "ARI", "opponent": "DEN", "game_id": "2026_07_DEN_ARI", "date": "2026-10-25", "position": "WR", "p_B": 0.34339593908488547, "drought": 3, "drought_xtd": 2.059192346170607, "historical_td_rate": 0.30080873397646524, "prior_appearances": 52, "prior_date": "2026-10-18", "days_since_appearance": 7, "recent_targets": 8.80265086438694, "recent_carries": 3.158920892223601e-06, "recent_xtd": 0.6431887296278798, "recent_offense_pct": 0.9017186854102303, "drought_opportunities": { "carries": 0, "targets": 27, "goal_carries": 0, "endzone_targets": 4, "redzone_targets": 5, "receiving_yards": 157 }, "recent_receiving_games": 3, "recent_receiving_yards_per_game": 52.333333333333336, "missed_team_games": 0, "excluded_return": false, "historical_scoring_frequency": 0.2633180192783799, "required_drought": 4, "excluded_drought": true, "production_path": false, "tier": 2, "eligible": true, "availability": "Week 7 report pending", "availability_note": "Final game status not issued at review", "availability_source": "https://www.nfl.com/injuries/", "honorable_mention": false, "excluded_out": false, "excluded_qb": false, "team_context": "", "exclusion_reason": "Not due yet: 3 scoreless appearances; 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"date": "2026-10-18", "tds": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "targets": 8.0, "offense_pct": 0.77 }, { "player_id": "00-0039064", "player": "Zay Flowers", "game_id": "2026_01_BAL_IND", "week": 1, "date": "2026-09-13", "tds": 1.0, "carries": 0.0, "targets": 6.0, "offense_pct": 0.29 }, { "player_id": "00-0039064", "player": "Zay Flowers", "game_id": "2026_03_BAL_DAL", "week": 3, "date": "2026-09-27", "tds": 0.0, "carries": 1.0, "targets": 6.0, "offense_pct": 0.33 }, { "player_id": "00-0039064", "player": "Zay Flowers", "game_id": "2026_04_TEN_BAL", "week": 4, "date": "2026-10-04", "tds": 1.0, "carries": 0.0, "targets": 10.0, "offense_pct": 0.73 }, { "player_id": "00-0039064", "player": "Zay Flowers", "game_id": "2026_05_BAL_ATL", "week": 5, "date": "2026-10-11", "tds": 0.0, "carries": 1.0, "targets": 9.0, "offense_pct": 0.82 }, { "player_id": "00-0039064", "player": "Zay Flowers", "game_id": "2026_06_BAL_CLE", "week": 6, "date": "2026-10-18", "tds": 0.0, "carries": 1.0, "targets": 11.0, "offense_pct": 0.88 }, { "player_id": "00-0039793", "player": "AJ Barner", "game_id": "2026_01_NE_SEA", "week": 1, "date": "2026-09-09", "tds": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "targets": 2.0, "offense_pct": 0.88 }, { "player_id": "00-0039793", "player": "AJ Barner", "game_id": "2026_02_SEA_ARI", "week": 2, "date": "2026-09-20", "tds": 1.0, "carries": 1.0, "targets": 1.0, "offense_pct": 0.8 }, { "player_id": "00-0039793", "player": "AJ Barner", "game_id": "2026_03_SEA_WAS", "week": 3, "date": "2026-09-27", "tds": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "targets": 9.0, "offense_pct": 0.91 }, { "player_id": "00-0039793", "player": "AJ Barner", "game_id": "2026_04_LAC_SEA", "week": 4, "date": "2026-10-04", "tds": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "targets": 3.0, "offense_pct": 0.9 }, { "player_id": "00-0039793", "player": "AJ Barner", "game_id": "2026_05_SF_SEA", "week": 5, "date": "2026-10-11", "tds": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "targets": 5.0, "offense_pct": 0.95 }, { "player_id": "00-0039793", "player": "AJ Barner", "game_id": "2026_06_SEA_DEN", "week": 6, "date": "2026-10-15", "tds": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "targets": 4.0, "offense_pct": 0.93 }, { "player_id": "00-0039919", "player": "Rome Odunze", "game_id": "2026_01_CHI_CAR", "week": 1, "date": "2026-09-13", "tds": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "targets": 3.0, "offense_pct": 0.48 }, { "player_id": "00-0039919", "player": "Rome Odunze", "game_id": "2026_02_MIN_CHI", "week": 2, "date": "2026-09-20", "tds": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "targets": 4.0, "offense_pct": 0.84 }, { "player_id": "00-0039919", "player": "Rome Odunze", "game_id": "2026_03_PHI_CHI", "week": 3, "date": "2026-09-28", "tds": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "targets": 6.0, "offense_pct": 0.85 }, { "player_id": "00-0039919", "player": "Rome Odunze", "game_id": "2026_04_NYJ_CHI", "week": 4, "date": "2026-10-04", "tds": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "targets": 7.0, "offense_pct": 0.89 }, { "player_id": "00-0039919", "player": "Rome Odunze", "game_id": "2026_05_CHI_GB", "week": 5, "date": "2026-10-11", "tds": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "targets": 9.0, "offense_pct": 0.99 }, { "player_id": "00-0039919", "player": "Rome Odunze", "game_id": "2026_06_CHI_ATL", "week": 6, "date": "2026-10-18", "tds": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "targets": 4.0, "offense_pct": 0.96 }, { "player_id": "00-0040583", "player": "Woody Marks", "game_id": "2026_01_BUF_HOU", "week": 1, "date": "2026-09-13", "tds": 0.0, "carries": 9.0, "targets": 1.0, "offense_pct": 0.51 }, { "player_id": "00-0040583", "player": "Woody Marks", "game_id": "2026_02_CIN_HOU", "week": 2, "date": "2026-09-20", "tds": 0.0, "carries": 8.0, "targets": 6.0, "offense_pct": 0.48 }, { "player_id": "00-0040583", "player": "Woody Marks", "game_id": "2026_03_HOU_IND", "week": 3, "date": "2026-09-27", "tds": 1.0, "carries": 5.0, "targets": 1.0, "offense_pct": 0.37 }, { "player_id": "00-0040583", "player": "Woody Marks", "game_id": "2026_04_DAL_HOU", "week": 4, "date": "2026-10-04", "tds": 1.0, "carries": 6.0, "targets": 1.0, "offense_pct": 0.44 }, { "player_id": "00-0040583", "player": "Woody Marks", "game_id": "2026_05_HOU_TEN", "week": 5, "date": "2026-10-11", "tds": 0.0, "carries": 15.0, "targets": 4.0, "offense_pct": 0.85 }, { "player_id": "00-0040583", "player": "Woody Marks", "game_id": "2026_06_HOU_JAX", "week": 6, "date": "2026-10-18", "tds": 0.0, "carries": 15.0, "targets": 3.0, "offense_pct": 0.78 }, { "player_id": "00-0040663", "player": "Harold Fannin", "game_id": "2026_01_CLE_JAX", "week": 1, "date": "2026-09-13", "tds": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "targets": 3.0, "offense_pct": 0.82 }, { "player_id": "00-0040663", "player": "Harold Fannin", "game_id": "2026_02_CLE_TB", "week": 2, "date": "2026-09-20", "tds": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "targets": 6.0, "offense_pct": 0.86 }, { "player_id": "00-0040663", "player": "Harold Fannin", "game_id": "2026_03_CAR_CLE", "week": 3, "date": "2026-09-27", "tds": 2.0, "carries": 0.0, "targets": 9.0, "offense_pct": 0.86 }, { "player_id": "00-0040663", "player": "Harold Fannin", "game_id": "2026_04_PIT_CLE", "week": 4, "date": 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"offense_pct": 0.77 }, { "player_id": "00-0040715", "player": "Cam Skattebo", "game_id": "2026_04_ARI_NYG", "week": 4, "date": "2026-10-04", "tds": 0.0, "carries": 18.0, "targets": 1.0, "offense_pct": 0.64 }, { "player_id": "00-0040715", "player": "Cam Skattebo", "game_id": "2026_05_NYG_WAS", "week": 5, "date": "2026-10-11", "tds": 0.0, "carries": 13.0, "targets": 3.0, "offense_pct": 0.63 }, { "player_id": "00-0040715", "player": "Cam Skattebo", "game_id": "2026_06_NO_NYG", "week": 6, "date": "2026-10-18", "tds": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "targets": 0.0, "offense_pct": 0.08 } ], "manifest": { "week": 7, "season": 2026, "stats_through_week": 6, "training": "2016\u20132025 Model B; opportunity model 2013\u20132025; same frozen regularization", "regularization_C": 10.0, "features": [ "position_RB", "position_TE", "recent_carries", "recent_targets", "recent_xtd", "recent_goal_carries", "recent_ez_targets", "recent_rz_targets", "recent_offense_pct", "last_carries", "last_targets", "last_xtd", "last_offense_pct", "team_points", "team_plays", "opp_allowed", "opp_plays", "days_since_appearance", "team_changed", "prior_appearances", "historical_td_rate", "historical_finish_ratio", "historical_weighted_games" ], "forecast_games": [ "2026_07_NE_CHI", "2026_07_PIT_NO", "2026_07_SF_ATL", "2026_07_CIN_BAL", "2026_07_TB_CAR", "2026_07_NYG_HOU", "2026_07_IND_MIN", "2026_07_MIA_NYJ", "2026_07_CLE_TEN", "2026_07_DEN_ARI", "2026_07_GB_DET", "2026_07_LA_LV", "2026_07_KC_SEA", "2026_07_DAL_PHI" ], "held_teams": [ "SF" ], "missing_snap_games": [ "2026_06_WAS_SF" ], "candidate_count": 321, "built_utc": "2026-10-20T14:25:19.472209+00:00", "sources": [ { "file": "roster.csv", "sha256": "3c03175740338d372d0d55c6a7df1a5253848ce1248fe619b5f4b78f1bcca717", "bytes": 974626 }, { "file": "players.csv", "sha256": "87495575e01a608a52c453db95faad23bcf3c8e216d90c3cbd9b6a15b25afc6e", "bytes": 7303410 }, { "file": ".pbp.csv.gz.i8Vvr3", "sha256": "0f76474b817eae2f0ff39edaf81c8cba1c7cf0876e6ac7bd8537dcabba2d4aaa", "bytes": 2621440 }, { "file": "games.csv", "sha256": "147a75dd49a1c83af30cb24bcfeb1b9d8f0c68ac5b65666ee77dfac6c91120fc", "bytes": 2185306 }, { "file": "pbp.csv.gz", "sha256": "14d0b7edddc5df64d96fef8b2f2ec93a815d10e6d265f4b4622d6dcae5e38a98", "bytes": 6436955 }, { "file": "snaps.csv", "sha256": "aa35151cabde0fd446c688cbc5f2722e022df96e220edb054e9c9782590b6fff", "bytes": 769833 } ], "position_normalization": { "HB": "RB", "restored_historical_appearances_by_season": { "2020": 41, "2025": 39 }, "source": "model_core.py; normalization before cohort filtering; restored actual TD outcomes from raw historical PBP" } }, "review": { "reviewed_date": "2026-10-20", "edition_status": "Early-week watch \u00b7 final game statuses pending", "players": { "Chase Brown": { "availability": "Week 7 report pending", "availability_note": "Played Weeks 1\u20135; Week 6 was a bye. Final Week 7 designation pending", "availability_source": "https://www.bengals.com/team/players-roster/chase-brown/logs/" }, "Rome Odunze": { "availability": "Not listed on Monday estimate", "availability_note": "Not listed on the Oct 19 estimated report; final Thursday status pending", "availability_source": "https://www.patriots.com/news/week-7-injury-report-patriots-at-bears" }, "A.J. Brown": { "availability": "Limited practice", "availability_note": "Ankle; limited on Monday estimate. Final game designation not issued", "availability_source": "https://www.patriots.com/news/week-7-injury-report-patriots-at-bears", "honorable_mention": true }, "Drake London": { "availability": "Week 7 report pending", "availability_note": "Played Week 6; no final Week 7 designation issued at review", "availability_source": "https://www.atlantafalcons.com/team/injury-report/" }, "Rico Dowdle": { "availability": "Week 7 report pending", "availability_note": "Played Week 6 after absence; comeback appearance completed. Final Week 7 status pending", "availability_source": "https://www.steelers.com/team/injury-report/" }, "Cam Skattebo": { "availability": "Role unresolved", "availability_note": "No touches in Week 6; role unsettled", "availability_source": "https://www.nfl.com/news/why-didn-t-giants-rb-cam-skattebo-tally-a-carry-vs-saints-i-got-punished-for-what-i-did" } }, "quarterback_holds": { "TB": { "reason": "Mayfield return unresolved; replacement-QB scoring context unverified", "source": "https://www.buccaneers.com/news/bucs-will-evaluate-baker-mayfield-in-practice-wednesday-potential-return" }, "NYG": { "reason": "Starting quarterback decision unresolved between Winston and McCarthy", "source": "https://www.giants.com/news/postgame-quotes-10-18-coach-john-harbaugh-qb-jameis-winston-qb-j-j-mccarthy" } } }, "method_note": "Same frozen Model B; personal scoring-game-frequency drought; established-history gate; return, QB and availability screening; editorial tiers." }